EURUSD Pending Bearish Bat

Throughout the week, Euro maintained its bearish tone and broke crucial psychological support of 1.10 on closing basis. Technically, the EURUSD pair could find support near 61.8% retracement of the previous up move located around 1.0950. A break below this could open the door towards 1.0850-1.0820 levels. On flip side, it has immediate resistance at 1.1060 and further at 1.11 levels. Hence, bias is likely to remain downside for this week with expectation of break of immediate hurdle of 1.0950 levels (EURUSD Forex Analysis).

EURUSD Forex Analysis 1

EURUSD Short Forex Analysis

The main currency pair is seen gradually moving higher in another attempt to regain 1.10 handle in wake of a renewed bout of risk-aversion that gripped Asian markets over the last hour, underpinning bids for the funding currency euro. Moreover, a minor-recovery in the EURUSD pair is slowly gaining traction as the greenback pushes lower against most of the competitors. The USD index now drops -0.11% to 97.17, at session lows. However, any upside is expected to remain short-lived as heavy selling in the EURJPY cross continues to weigh on the core pair – EURUSD (EURUSD Forex Analysis).

EURUSD Forex Analysis 2

EURUSD Range On Today

The pair is now gaining 0.19% at 1.1016 facing the initial hurdle at 1.1057 (20-day sma) followed by 1.1075 (200-day sma) and then 1.1166 (high Jul.14). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.0913 (post-Brexit low Jun.24) would open the door to 1.0820 (low Mar.10) and finally 1.0777 (low Jan.21).

EURUSD Forex Analysis 3

EURUSD Forex Analysis Short

The greenback remains under heavy pressure early in the Old Continent, now helping EURUSD to regain the psychological handle at 1.1000, fresh daily highs. Spot gathered further upside traction as market participants continue to unwind USD-long positions. In fact, USD remains on the defensive so far following swelling speculations over the potential size of the stimulus package by the BoJ likely to be announced at its meeting on Friday.

EURUSD Forex Analysis 4

EURUSD Bat-Pattren Long

Later today, the major will continue to take cues from the cross-driven price-action as well as from the broader market sentiment, in absence of top notch data release – except for the US consumer confidence figures. The crucial FOMC verdict is up on the cards tomorrow, which will have major impact across the fx board.

EURUSD Forex Analysis 5

As it is broadly expected that the FOMC will keep the federal funds target range unchanged at 0.25%-0.50%, focus is on the statement. Even though financial markets have taken Brexit very calmly and the US equity market is at an all-time high, we expect the FOMC to take a cautious stance due to possible negative spill-over effects from Brexit uncertainties. Still, risk is tilted towards a more hawkish Fed given the strong rebound in US data in Q2 (especially on the consumer side).